[Met-jobs] PhD -- Statistical Postprocessing -- Innsbruck, Austria
**Multivariate Probabilistic Forecasting of Weather Using
Joint Distributional Regression**
is a 3-year project for a PhD embedded in a larger
group working at the interface between atmospheric
science and applied
statistics, which is affiliated partly to the Department
of Statistics and
partly to the Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric
A numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensemble prediction
simulates the state of the atmosphere in a probabilistic
manner with a
physically consistent covariance in space, time, and
among atmospheric parameters.
Multivariate post-processing aims at preserving this
traditionally by sequentially calibrating the margins
using univariate methods and
restoring the covariance by (empirical) copulas.
Typical multivariate weather prediction applications are:
* Predicting temperature for multiple forecast horizons.
* Predicting precipitation for multiple sites or
continuously over space.
* Predicting wind speed for multiple heights to derive a
The project aims at developing a new framework for
post-processing that simultaneously models both margins
and correlations of a multivariate
normal distribution. Both the marginal and the joint
correlation parameters will be
conditioned on NWP-EPS output by linking them to additive
predictors in a distributional
After laying the methodological foundation for the joint
approach (along with corresponding software), the methods
will be applied to
multivariate temporal or spatial forecasting,
of temperature, pressure, and wind speed dealing with
different temporal scales
(meso vs. synoptical) or different spatial dimensions
(horizontal vs. vertical).
The task will be split among the PhD candidate and a
PostDoc researcher affiliated
to the same project.
* Master's degree in statistics, mathematics, physics, or
with a solid statistical background.
* Computing: Proficiency in R; further skills helpful
(e.g., Linux, Python, handling
of numerical weather prediction data).
* Language: Fluent English; German optional.
Send a cover letter, resume/CV, and the names and contact
of two references to `email@example.com`. Review of
applications will begin
immediately but applications will be considered until at
26 November 2018.
References will not be contacted without prior
notification of the candidates.
Dr. Thorsten Simon
University of Innsbruck
Institute of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences
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