|From||Roger Brugge <firstname.lastname@example.org>|
|Date||Thu, 19 Jan 2017 14:16:39 +0000|
Forwarded from CLIMLIST... Closing Date: Monday, 23 January 2017 (!!!) Topic: Future changes of tropical cyclones in East Asia and potential adaptation measures (FUCHA-TC) Potential PhD Studentship in the context of the Central England NERC Training Alliance (CENTA) (<http://www.centa.org.uk/>) Overview Climate over eastern Asia is mainly characterized by the East-Asian summer monsoon (EASM), the related formation of the quasi-stationary Changma-Baiu-Meiyu frontal system, and the occurrence of tropical cyclones (TCs). Possible changes of the EASM and the occurrence of extreme tropical cyclones under enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations could have high impact on society and economy of one of the most densely populated regions of the globe. Regional decision processes for the development of suitable adaptation strategies or the timely initiation of related mitigation efforts in East Asia will strongly depend on robust and comprehensive information about future near-term as well as long-term potential changes in the climate system. Based on physical process understanding, it is important to quantify the regional effects of global or hemispheric scale phenomena for both, the scientific community to understand potential changes and the impact community (incl. decision makers) to act proactively in the most suitable manner. The three most important aspects in this context are the provision of a) relevant, timely, and b) comprehensive information about potential changes as well as c) information about the quality of the confidence in the information. FUCHA-TC is aimed at analysing and assessing economic losses caused by TCs in the East Asian region. Additionally different adaptation measures damping future losses should be compared. The main goals are to ·establish a relationship between observed TCs and observed economic losses triggered by them, in order to ·predict possible future changes in frequency and intensity, thereby estimating a change in damage for the climate predictions and eventually to ·decide which adaptation strategies are suitable for the East Asian region given the future changes of TCs. This study will be embedded in the project FOREX (Fostering Regional Decision Making by the Assessment of Uncertainties of Future Regional Extremes and their Linkage to Global Climate System Variability for China and East Asia), which is part of the Met Office CSSP China project funded by the Newton fund. FOREX aims to analyse changes of local and regional extreme events (TCs, EASM) under changed future climate conditions using a huge amount of different climate projection datasets (CMIP3, CMIP5, Perturbed-physic ensembles) with a strong focus on climate change signals on longer time-scales. CENTA students will attend 45 days training throughout their PhD including a 10 day placement. In the first year, students will be trained as a single cohort on environmental science, research methods and core skills. Throughout the PhD, training will progress from core skills sets to master classes specific to the student's projects and themes. Specific for this project, the PhD student will gain skills to analyse state-of-the-art forecast data. This training will be in direct modelling as well as in a response surface approach and, specifically, is in: ·extreme value and multi-variate analytical statistics ·statistical modelling (multi-linear regression) ·the basics of CAT models and their specific features to model hazards, vulnerabilities and exposure ·fieldwork, integrated modelling, ·GIS, and relevant programming giving the student skills identified as ‘most wanted’ for environmental jobs; ‘modelling’, ‘multi-disciplinarity’, ‘risk and uncertainty’. This is excellent employment market preparation as scientific research skills, technical analysis and industry related model skills will be practiced and gained. Partners in this CENTA-PhD studentship will be UoBirmingham and regional partners in China (e.g. the Nanjing University) with which the PI has scientific collaboration in the framework of the CSSP-China project. Further on, collaborations exist with different groups at the UK Met Office, who is leading institution in this Newton Fund funded project. Applications for the 2017/18 intake are now open. Please note that the closing date for applications is 23rd January 2017. Please find more information including how to apply here: http://www.centa.org.uk/themes/anthropogenic/b20/ <https://protect2.fireeye.com/url?k=6993535d-7ab1-4d3e-872b-8e525c7c7650&u=http://www.centa.org.uk/themes/anthropogenic/b20/> Best regards Gregor Leckebusch Dr. Gregor C. Leckebusch Senior Lecturer for Meteorology and Climatology EHS Postgraduate Research Tutor School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences University of Birmingham Edgbaston Birmingham B15 2TT United Kingdom Associate Professor (Privatdozent) Institute for Meteorology FU Berlin email: G.C.Leckebusch@bham.ac.uk <mailto:G.C.Leckebusch@bham.ac.uk>
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